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Eli Stephenson vs Jack Anthrop — M15 Ithaca Round of 16

M15 IthacaR16HardThu 22 Oct · 11:00
Eli StephensonUSA27%
VSClear favourite · Anthrop J.
Jack Anthrop(4)ATP #731 · USA73%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Anthrop J.
27%73%

Clear edge for Anthrop J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Stephenson E.4.3/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Anthrop J.4.7/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 9 on hardInformative
Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Anthrop J.
CountryWon 56% in USA (89)Supports Anthrop J.
Recent runLost last 2Both players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 516
Hard ELO1 519
Last 106–4
Age21
ELO1 585
Hard ELO1 574
Last 106–4
Age22

Eli Stephenson faces Jack Anthrop in the M15 Ithaca round of 16 on hard. Jack Anthrop holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Jack Anthrop carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
  • Head-to-head: Jack Anthrop leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at M15 Lexington 2026.
  • Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Anthrop J. leads 2–0
02

Evidence

Stephenson E.Anthrop J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate62% (8–5)67% (16–8) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15161585 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15191574 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 8 vs 13 matches
1st-serve points won71%72% (ahead)
Return points won38%41% (ahead)
Aces / match3.64.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 8 vs 13 matches
Break points saved53%64% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast8°C · Partly cloudy
Wind10 km/h
Humidity81%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Eli Stephenson vs Jack Anthrop — M15 Ithaca Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/anthrop-vs-stephenson-m15-ithaca-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).