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F. Roussel vs Jaden Weekes — M15 Ithaca Round of 32

M15 IthacaR32HardWed 21 Oct · 13:30
F. RousselCAN33%
VSClear favourite · Weekes J.
Jaden WeekesCAN67%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Weekes J.
33%67%

Clear edge for Weekes J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Roussel F.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Weekes J.3.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form1 of last 8 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 6Informative
CountryWon 62% in USA (24)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 499
Hard ELO1 497
Last 105–5
Age18
ELO1 544
Hard ELO1 534
Last 106–4
Age22

F. Roussel faces Jaden Weekes in the M15 Ithaca round of 32 on hard. Jaden Weekes brings the better recent hard form (5 of 8).

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Jaden Weekes carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: F. Roussel 4 of 8, Jaden Weekes 5 of 8 on hard recently — Jaden Weekes the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Roussel F.Weekes J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–56–4 (ahead)
Season win rate50% (5–5)57% (8–6) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14991544 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO14971534 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 5 vs 6 matches
1st-serve points won65% (ahead)61%
Return points won42% (ahead)39%
Aces / match1.83.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 5 vs 6 matches
Break points saved54%54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast14°C · Clear
Wind8 km/h
Humidity33%

Cite this

Umpiry, "F. Roussel vs Jaden Weekes — M15 Ithaca Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/roussel-vs-weekes-m15-ithaca-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).