UMPIRY
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Rafael Ymer vs Connor Plunkett — M15 Ithaca Round of 32

M15 IthacaR32HardWed 21 Oct · 13:30
Rafael YmerSWE51%
VSToss-up
Connor PlunkettUSA49%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ymer R.4.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Plunkett C.4.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 481
Hard ELO1 500
Last 106–4
Age20
ELO1 508
Hard ELO1 508
Last 102–1
Age19

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ymer R.Plunkett C.
FormLast 10 vs 3 matches · 2026
Win–loss6–42–1 (ahead)
Season win rate67% (6–3)67% (2–1)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14811508 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15001508 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 5 vs 1 matches
1st-serve points won68%79% (ahead)
Return points won44%49% (ahead)
Aces / match2.2 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 5 vs 1 matches
Break points saved57%100% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast14°C · Clear
Wind8 km/h
Humidity33%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Rafael Ymer vs Connor Plunkett — M15 Ithaca Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/plunkett-vs-ymer-m15-ithaca-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).