Mio Mushika vs Erika Sema | W35 Sydney Round of 16

UMPIRY

W35 SydneyR16HardThu 22 Oct · 10:00

Mio Mushika(4)WTA #428 · JPN56%

VSToss-up

Erika SemaWTA #554 · JPN44%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

56%44%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Mushika M.5.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Sema E.5.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form3 of last 10 on hardInformative

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headTrails 0–1 on hardInformative

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 569

Hard ELO1 558

Last 106–4

Age21

ELO1 577

Hard ELO1 566

Last 104–6

Age37

Mio Mushika faces Erika Sema in the W35 Sydney round of 16 on hard. They have met once, Erika Sema leading 1–0. Mio Mushika brings the better recent hard form (6 of 10).

Key context

Last match: Mio Mushika dropped the opening set before beating Yuhan Liu 4–6 7–6 6–4.
Fatigue load: Mio Mushika carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Head-to-head: Erika Sema leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W25 Hong Kong 2023.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Sema E. leads 1–0

Sema E.June 2023W25 Hong KongHard6-4 6-3

Evidence

Mushika M.Sema E.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–44–6

Season win rate50% (22–22)57% (23–17)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15691577

Hard-court ELO15581566

Serve vs returnLast 39 vs 33 matches

1st-serve points won61%60%

Return points won46%47%

Aces / match1.20.7

ClutchLast 39 vs 33 matches

Break points saved54%54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast20°C · Drizzle

Wind19 km/h

Humidity84%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Mio Mushika vs Erika Sema — W35 Sydney Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/mushika-vs-sema-w35-sydney-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).