Ella Mcdonald vs Rose Marie Nijkamp | W50 Austin Round of 16

UMPIRY

W50 AustinR16HardWed 21 Oct · 11:00

Ella McdonaldWTA #353 · GBR59%

VSSlight edge · McDonald E.

Rose Marie NijkampWTA #661 · NED41%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · McDonald E.

59%41%

McDonald E. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

McDonald E.4.3/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Nijkamp R.4.8/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Recent runLost last 2Informative

CountryWon 71% in USA (34)Against the prediction · Nijkamp R.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 626

Hard ELO1 610

Last 108–2

Age21

EarningsCareer $163K2026 $41K

ELO1 594

Hard ELO1 527

Last 107–3

Age20

EarningsCareer $23K2026 $5K

Ella Mcdonald faces Rose Marie Nijkamp in the W50 Austin round of 16 on hard. Ella Mcdonald holds the paper edge — ranked #353. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Rose Marie Nijkamp dropped the opening set before beating Lea Nilsson 1–6 7–6 6–3.
Surface form: Ella Mcdonald 8 of 10, Rose Marie Nijkamp 7 of 10 on hard recently — Ella Mcdonald the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Rose Marie Nijkamp carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

McDonald E.Nijkamp R.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–27–3

Season win rate68% (21–10)62% (16–10)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16261594

Hard-court ELO16101527

Serve vs returnLast 24 vs 20 matches

1st-serve points won63%61%

Return points won47%49%

Aces / match2.50.8

ClutchLast 24 vs 20 matches

Break points saved57%53%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast23°C · Clear

Wind6 km/h

Humidity30%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ella Mcdonald vs Rose Marie Nijkamp — W50 Austin Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/mcdonald-vs-nijkamp-w50-austin-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).