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Aspen Schuman vs Connie Ma — W35 Bakersfield Round of 32

W35 BakersfieldR32HardWed 21 Oct · 10:00
Aspen SchumanWTA #853 · USA55%
VSToss-up
Connie MaUSA45%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
55%45%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Schuman A.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Ma C.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
CountryWon 72% in USA (25)Against the prediction · Ma C.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 574
Hard ELO1 567
Last 106–4
Age19
ELO1 553
Hard ELO1 542
Last 108–2
Age23

Aspen Schuman faces Connie Ma in the W35 Bakersfield round of 32 on hard. Connie Ma brings the better recent hard form (8 of 10).

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Connie Ma carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Aspen Schuman 6 of 10, Connie Ma 8 of 10 on hard recently — Connie Ma the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Schuman A.Ma C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–48–2 (ahead)
Season win rate63% (5–3)89% (8–1) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1574 (ahead)1553
Hard-court ELO1567 (ahead)1542
Serve vs returnLast 2 vs 9 matches
1st-serve points won51%61% (ahead)
Return points won51%55% (ahead)
Aces / match1.01.0
ClutchLast 2 vs 9 matches
Break points saved59%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast20°C · Overcast
Wind12 km/h
Humidity51%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Aspen Schuman vs Connie Ma — W35 Bakersfield Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/ma-vs-schuman-w35-bakersfield-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).