UMPIRY
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Eero Vasa vs M. Gribaldo — M25 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16

M25 Santa Margherita di PulaR16ClayWed 21 Oct · 12:30
Eero Vasa(4)ATP #473 · FIN89%
VSStrong favourite · Vasa E.
M. GribaldoITA11%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Vasa E.
89%11%

Clear edge for Vasa E. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 9 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Vasa E.5.0/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Gribaldo M.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 10 on clayInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 650
Clay ELO1 606
Last 107–3
Age29
PlaysRight
ELO1 500
Clay ELO1 500
Last 102–4
Age56
PlaysRight

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Vasa E.Gribaldo M.
FormLast 10 vs 6 matches · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)2–4
Season win rate55% (29–24) (ahead)33% (1–2)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1650 (ahead)1500
Clay-court ELO1606 (ahead)1500
Serve vs returnLast 42 vs 2 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)65%
Return points won39%53% (ahead)
Aces / match5.7 (ahead)1.0
ClutchLast 42 vs 2 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)33%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:30 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast22°C · Partly cloudy
Wind16 km/h
Humidity63%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Eero Vasa vs M. Gribaldo — M25 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/gribaldo-vs-vasa-m25-santa-margherita-di-pula-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).