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Sloane Stephens vs Thea Frodin — W50 Austin Round of 16

W50 AustinR16HardWed 21 Oct · 12:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Stephens S.
90%10%

Clear edge for Stephens S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 10 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Stephens S.4.6/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Frodin T.4.3/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
CountryWon 65% in USA (20)Supports Stephens S.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 870
Hard ELO1 741
Last 108–2
Age33
EarningsCareer $19.4M2026 $411K
ELO1 524
Hard ELO1 509
Last 107–3
Age17
EarningsCareer $180K2026 $159K

Sloane Stephens faces Thea Frodin in the W50 Austin round of 16 on hard. Sloane Stephens holds the paper edge — ranked #118. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Stephens S.Frodin T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)7–3
Season win rate55% (24–20)55% (18–15)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1870 (ahead)1524
Hard-court ELO1741 (ahead)1509
Serve vs returnLast 41 vs 29 matches
1st-serve points won60%66% (ahead)
Return points won44%45% (ahead)
Aces / match1.25.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 41 vs 29 matches
Break points saved54%54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast26°C · Clear
Wind6 km/h
Humidity25%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sloane Stephens vs Thea Frodin — W50 Austin Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/frodin-vs-stephens-w50-austin-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).