Manuel Mazza vs Andrey Chepelev — M25 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16
Manuel Mazza faces Andrey Chepelev in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula round of 16 on clay. Andrey Chepelev is the paper favourite — ranked #366 — but Manuel Mazza arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on clay to Andrey Chepelev's 6 of 10.
Key context
- Last match: Manuel Mazza dropped just 2 games past Riccardo Di Vita.
- Last match: Andrey Chepelev handed Romeo Spinolo a second-set bagel in a 6–1 6–0 win.
- Fatigue load: Andrey Chepelev carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Serve flowMazza M. broken once.
- Hold to love/15
- Hold to 30
- Hold to 40 / deuce
- Broken
- Result unknown
Mazza M.0/1Chepelev A.
Set 1
Match momentumLive
Too early to read the momentum
Key moments
Latest first- BREAKSet 1 · Game 1Chepelev A. broke serve
Pre-match context
Chepelev A. came in with the higher clay rating (1650 vs 1638); Mazza M. with the better recent record (8–2 vs 6–4).
Pre-match prediction
Set before the first ball · not updated in playPre-match win probability
46%54%
Umpiry Score
4.3/10/104.1
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probabilityCommon opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Season statistics
Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Mazza M.Chepelev A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate57% (12–9)58% (28–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16611666 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO16381650 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 20 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won64%65% (ahead)
Return points won41%43% (ahead)
Aces / match1.9 (ahead)1.6
ClutchLast 20 vs 44 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)59%
Draw
Cite this
Umpiry, "Manuel Mazza vs Andrey Chepelev — M25 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/chepelev-vs-mazza-m25-santa-margherita-di-pula-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).