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P. H. Chabalgoity vs Dante Pagani — M15 Maceio Round of 32

M15 MaceioR32ClayWed 21 Oct · 13:00
P. H. ChabalgoityBRA44%
VSToss-up
Dante PaganiARG56%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
44%56%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Chabalgoity P.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Pagani D.4.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form0 of last 6 on clayInformative
Recent runLost last 6Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 490
Clay ELO1 495
Last 103–7
Age56
ELO1 508
Clay ELO1 506
Last 104–6
Age18

P. H. Chabalgoity faces Dante Pagani in the M15 Maceio round of 32 on clay. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Dante Pagani carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 2 of 7 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Chabalgoity P.Pagani D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–74–6 (ahead)
Season win rate40% (2–3) (ahead)25% (2–6)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO14901508 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO14951506 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 3 vs 5 matches
1st-serve points won64% (ahead)59%
Return points won43% (ahead)40%
Aces / match0.01.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 3 vs 5 matches
Break points saved73% (ahead)46%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast29°C · Drizzle
Wind22 km/h
Humidity67%

Cite this

Umpiry, "P. H. Chabalgoity vs Dante Pagani — M15 Maceio Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/chabalgoity-vs-pagani-m15-maceio-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).