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Tommaso Compagnucci vs Lorenzo Carboni — M25 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16

M25 Santa Margherita di PulaR16ClayWed 21 Oct · 12:25Live
Tommaso Compagnucci(1)ATP #373 · ITA
Lorenzo CarboniATP #550 · ITA
SetsGamesGame0
31
1
60
150
Odds

No breaks in the 2nd

Tommaso Compagnucci faces Lorenzo Carboni in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula round of 16 on clay. Tommaso Compagnucci is the paper favourite — ranked #373, a roughly 200-point clay Elo advantage — but Lorenzo Carboni arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on clay to Tommaso Compagnucci's 4 of 8.

Key context

Serve flowCompagnucci T. broken once · Carboni L. unbroken.
  • Hold to love/15
  • Hold to 30
  • Hold to 40 / deuce
  • Broken
  • Result unknown
Compagnucci T.
4/5Carboni L.
5/5
Set 1Set 2

Match momentum

Last 30 pointsCompagnucci T.Carboni L.
EvenCompagnucci…Carboni L.
Swinging toCompagnucci T.48
7Last 12 points5
18Last 3 games17
0/2Break points1/9
30 pointsNow

Live statistics · Serve vs return

Compagnucci T.Carboni L.
Serve
  • 0Aces0
  • 0Double faults0
  • 62% · 16/261st serve %67% · 18/27
  • 56%1st serve points won78%
  • 70% · 7/102nd serve points won67% · 6/9
  • 62% · 16/26Service points won74% · 20/27
  • 80% · 4/5Service games held100% · 5/5
Return
  • 26% · 7/27Return points won38% · 10/26
  • 22% · 4/181st return points won44% · 7/16
  • 33% · 3/92nd return points won30% · 3/10
  • 0%Break points won17%
  • 0Breaks of serve1
Points
  • 23Total points won30
  • 6Most points in a row7
  • 1Most games in a row3

Key moments

Latest first
  1. SETSet 1 · Game 9Carboni L. took the set
  2. HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 7Carboni L. held to love
  3. HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 4Compagnucci T. held to love
  4. BREAKSet 1 · Game 2Carboni L. broke serve
  5. HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 1Carboni L. held to love
Pre-match context

Compagnucci T. came in with the higher clay rating (1678 vs 1568).

Pre-match prediction

Set before the first ball · not updated in play
Pre-match win probability
66%34%
Umpiry Score
6.3/10/103.8
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probability
ELO1 696
Clay ELO1 678
Last 106–4
Age26
Height173 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $108K2026 $23K
ELO1 639
Clay ELO1 568
Last 106–4
Age20
Height168 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $98K2026 $24K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Season statistics

Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Compagnucci T.Carboni L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate64% (25–14) (ahead)44% (23–29)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1696 (ahead)1639
Clay-court ELO1678 (ahead)1568
Serve vs returnLast 37 vs 49 matches
1st-serve points won67% (ahead)62%
Return points won41%41%
Aces / match2.7 (ahead)1.7
ClutchLast 37 vs 49 matches
Break points saved61% (ahead)51%

Draw

Conditions

12:25 local
SurfaceClay
Weather23°C · Partly cloudy
Wind15 km/h
Humidity64%

Match info

  • Started12:25 local

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tommaso Compagnucci vs Lorenzo Carboni — M25 Santa Margherita di Pula Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/carboni-vs-compagnucci-m25-santa-margherita-di-pula-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).