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Naiktha Bains vs Alana Subasic — W35 Sydney Round of 16

W35 SydneyR16HardThu 22 Oct
Naiktha Bains(1)WTA #358 · GBR69%
VSClear favourite · Bains N.
Alana SubasicWTA #516 · AUS31%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Bains N.
69%31%

Clear edge for Bains N. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Bains N.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Subasic A.3.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form7 of last 10 on hardSupports Bains N.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 640
Hard ELO1 608
Last 106–4
Age28
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $536K2026 $21K
ELO1 579
Hard ELO1 565
Last 106–4
Age19
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $89K2026 $46K

Naiktha Bains faces Alana Subasic in the W35 Sydney round of 16 on hard. Naiktha Bains holds the paper edge — ranked #358. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Last match: Naiktha Bains dropped just 3 games past Natsuho Arakawa.
  • Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Bains N.Subasic A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate63% (27–16)64% (28–16) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1640 (ahead)1579
Hard-court ELO1608 (ahead)1565
Serve vs returnLast 35 matches each
1st-serve points won66% (ahead)59%
Return points won45%48% (ahead)
Aces / match2.2 (ahead)0.7
ClutchLast 35 matches each
Break points saved59% (ahead)51%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

SurfaceHard
Forecast21°C · Drizzle
Wind24 km/h
Humidity73%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Naiktha Bains vs Alana Subasic — W35 Sydney Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/bains-vs-subasic-w35-sydney-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).