UMPIRY
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Tomasz Berkieta vs Nicolas Arseneault — M15 Ithaca Round of 32

M15 IthacaR32HardWed 21 Oct · 13:30
Tomasz Berkieta(3)ATP #645 · POL48%
VSToss-up
Nicolas ArseneaultCAN52%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
48%52%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Berkieta T.5.3/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Arseneault N.3.5/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 7 on hardAgainst the prediction · Berkieta T.
Recent runLost last 5Informative
CountryWon 54% in USA (24)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 573
Hard ELO1 498
Last 105–5
Age20
ELO1 564
Hard ELO1 550
Last 104–6
Age19

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Berkieta T.Arseneault N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate42% (11–15) (ahead)40% (6–9)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1573 (ahead)1564
Hard-court ELO14981550 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 24 vs 14 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)66%
Return points won39% (ahead)37%
Aces / match4.2 (ahead)2.9
ClutchLast 24 vs 14 matches
Break points saved53%60% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast14°C · Clear
Wind8 km/h
Humidity33%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tomasz Berkieta vs Nicolas Arseneault — M15 Ithaca Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/arseneault-vs-berkieta-m15-ithaca-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).