UMPIRY
EN

Mutsumi Uemura vs Ya Yi Yang — W35 Sydney Round of 32

W35 SydneyR32HardTue 20 Oct · 12:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Yang Y.
30%70%

Clear edge for Yang Y. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Uemura M.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Yang Y.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 526
Hard ELO1 523
Last 106–4
Age56
ELO1 588
Hard ELO1 566
Last 105–5
Age22

Mutsumi Uemura faces Ya Yi Yang in the W35 Sydney round of 32 on hard. Ya Yi Yang is the paper favourite — ranked #507 — but Mutsumi Uemura arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on hard to Ya Yi Yang's 3 of 8.

Key context

  • Surface form: Mutsumi Uemura 5 of 8, Ya Yi Yang 3 of 8 on hard recently — Mutsumi Uemura the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Uemura M.Yang Y.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate53% (17–15) (ahead)51% (21–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15261588 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15231566 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 21 vs 28 matches
1st-serve points won57%61% (ahead)
Return points won45%45%
Aces / match0.62.7 (ahead)
ClutchLast 21 vs 28 matches
Break points saved54% (ahead)51%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast21°C · Drizzle
Wind16 km/h
Humidity62%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Mutsumi Uemura vs Ya Yi Yang — W35 Sydney Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/uemura-vs-yang-w35-sydney-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).