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Sebastian Sorger vs Rhys Lawlor — M25 Redbridge Round of 32

M25 RedbridgeR32HardTue 20 Oct · 11:20
Sebastian Sorger(5)ATP #372 · AUT89%
VSStrong favourite · Sorger S.
Rhys LawlorGBR11%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Sorger S.
89%11%

Clear edge for Sorger S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 9 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Sorger S.5.2/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Lawlor R.5.7/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface switchClay → HardAgainst the prediction · Lawlor R.
Recent runLost last 2Both players
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 670
Hard ELO1 551
Last 106–4
Age20
PlaysRight
ELO1 497
Hard ELO1 497
Last 103–7
Age17
PlaysRight

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Sorger S.Lawlor R.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate59% (23–16) (ahead)29% (2–5)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1670 (ahead)1497
Hard-court ELO1551 (ahead)1497
Serve vs returnLast 34 vs 2 matches
1st-serve points won62% (ahead)54%
Return points won44% (ahead)31%
Aces / match1.73.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 34 vs 2 matches
Break points saved57% (ahead)50%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:20 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast13°C · Drizzle
Wind13 km/h
Humidity91%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sebastian Sorger vs Rhys Lawlor — M25 Redbridge Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/lawlor-vs-sorger-m25-redbridge-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).