UMPIRY
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Matthew William Donald vs Javier Barranco Cosano — Florence Qualifying Round of 16

FlorenceQ16QualifyingClayTue 20 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Donald M.6.4/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Barranco Cosano J.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form7 of last 10 on claySupports Donald M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Donald M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 667
Clay ELO1 609
Last 109–1
Age21
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $67K2026 $21K
ELO1 716
Clay ELO1 679
Last 105–5
Age27
Height180 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $419K2026 $14K

Matthew William Donald faces Javier Barranco Cosano in the Florence qualifying round of 16 on clay. Matthew William Donald holds the paper edge — ranked #418.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Donald M.Barranco Cosano J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate67% (33–16) (ahead)62% (24–15)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16671716 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO16091679 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 42 vs 35 matches
1st-serve points won65%66% (ahead)
Return points won46% (ahead)45%
Aces / match1.11.7 (ahead)
ClutchLast 42 vs 35 matches
Break points saved54%56% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast17°C · Clear
Wind3 km/h
Humidity72%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Donald M.Barranco Cosano J.
15 — fresherDays since last match7
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days17
0 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
0 — fresherGames · 14 days68
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matthew William Donald vs Javier Barranco Cosano — Florence Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/cosano-vs-donald-florence-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).