UMPIRY
EN

Nika Hurkacz vs Hanna Chang — W35 Bakersfield Round of 32

W35 BakersfieldR32HardTue 20 Oct · 13:00
Nika HurkaczPOL11%
VSStrong favourite · Chang H.
Hanna Chang(3)WTA #287 · USA89%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Chang H.
11%89%

Clear edge for Chang H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 9 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Hurkacz N.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Chang H.5.0/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Surface switchClay → HardSupports Chang H.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 503
Hard ELO1 506
Last 104–6
ELO1 651
Hard ELO1 615
Last 104–6

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Hurkacz N.Chang H.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate38% (3–5)66% (33–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15031651 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15061615 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 7 vs 39 matches
1st-serve points won58%63% (ahead)
Return points won46%48% (ahead)
Aces / match1.3 (ahead)1.2
ClutchLast 7 vs 39 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)50%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast25°C · Clear
Wind4 km/h
Humidity33%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nika Hurkacz vs Hanna Chang — W35 Bakersfield Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/chang-vs-hurkacz-w35-bakersfield-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).