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Gonzalo Villanueva vs Miguel Tobon — Cali Round of 32

CaliR32ClayMon 19 Oct · 10:00
VSClear favourite · Villanueva G.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Villanueva G.
72%28%

Clear edge for Villanueva G. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Villanueva G.5.9/10
Even match
Tobon M.5.5/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+39 Clay Elo edgeSupports Villanueva G.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1360Supports Villanueva G.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on claySupports Villanueva G.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 711
Clay ELO1 688
Last 105–5
Age31
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 586
Clay ELO1 544
Last 105–5
Age20
Height185 cm
PlaysRight

Gonzalo Villanueva faces Miguel Tobon in the Cali round of 32 on clay. Gonzalo Villanueva is the paper favourite — ranked #323, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage — but Miguel Tobon arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on clay to Gonzalo Villanueva's 1 of 4.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Villanueva G. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Villanueva G.Tobon M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate60% (35–23) (ahead)53% (24–21)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1711 (ahead)1586
Clay-court ELO1688 (ahead)1544
Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won64%69% (ahead)
Return points won45% (ahead)39%
Aces / match2.24.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 56 vs 44 matches
Break points saved56%59% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast24°C · Drizzle
Wind3 km/h
Humidity73%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Villanueva G.Tobon M.
4Days since last match9 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
31Games · 7 days0 — fresher
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days3
64 — fresherGames · 14 days78
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Gonzalo Villanueva vs Miguel Tobon — Cali Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/tobon-vs-villanueva-cali-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).