UMPIRY
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Marco Trungelliti vs Tiago Pereira — Lisbon Round of 32

LisbonR32ClayMon 19 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Trungelliti M.
68%32%

Clear edge for Trungelliti M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Trungelliti M.7.5/10
Dominant favourite
Pereira T.4.5/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+421 Clay Elo edgeSupports Trungelliti M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1627Supports Trungelliti M.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on clayAgainst the prediction · Pereira T.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Pereira T.
ELO1 840
Clay ELO1 777
Last 106–4
Age36
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $617K
ELO1 658
Clay ELO1 559
Last 105–5
Age22
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $221K2026 $57K

Marco Trungelliti faces Tiago Pereira in the Lisbon round of 32 on clay. Marco Trungelliti holds the paper edge — ranked #90, a roughly 420-point clay Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Evidence

Trungelliti M.Pereira T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate54% (34–29) (ahead)45% (23–28)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1840 (ahead)1658
Clay-court ELO1777 (ahead)1559
Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 43 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)67%
Return points won38%38%
Aces / match4.7 (ahead)3.2
ClutchLast 59 vs 43 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)56%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast17°C · Clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity47%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Trungelliti M.Pereira T.
2Days since last match5 — fresher
3Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
74Games · 7 days15 — fresher
4Matches · 14 days4
95Games · 14 days82 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Marco Trungelliti vs Tiago Pereira — Lisbon Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/pereira-vs-trungelliti-lisbon-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).