Clemence Mercier vs Lilian Poling | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

W75 SaguenayQ16QualifyingHardMon 19 Oct · 11:15

Clemence MercierCAN52%

VSToss-up

Lilian PolingUSA48%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

52%48%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Mercier C.4.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Poling L.4.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

What we know

Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardAgainst the prediction · Poling L.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 503

Hard ELO1 491

Last 103–7

Age18

ELO1 492

Hard ELO1 481

Last 104–6

Age28

Clemence Mercier faces Lilian Poling in the W75 Saguenay qualifying round of 16 on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Last match: Clemence Mercier dropped the opening set before beating Nina Vargova 2–6 6–4 7–5.
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1. Last met at W75 Toronto 1 2025.
Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1

Poling L.October 2025W75 Toronto 1Hard6-1 6-3
Mercier C.March 2024W15 Brossard 1Hard6-3 6-4

Evidence

Mercier C.Poling L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–74–6

Season win rate25% (1–3)33% (7–14)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15031492

Hard-court ELO14911481

Serve vs returnLast 3 vs 20 matches

1st-serve points won54%53%

Return points won41%44%

Aces / match3.00.8

ClutchLast 3 vs 20 matches

Break points saved56%48%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:15 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast12°C · Clear

Wind15 km/h

Humidity64%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Clemence Mercier vs Lilian Poling — W75 Saguenay Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/mercier-vs-poling-w75-saguenay-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).