Olivia Lincer vs Merna Refaat | W50 Austin Qualifying Round of 16

UMPIRY

W50 AustinQ16QualifyingHardMon 19 Oct · 09:15

Olivia LincerWTA #734 · POL50%

VSToss-up

Merna RefaatEGY50%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

50%50%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Lincer O.4.5/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Refaat M.4.6/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

What we know

Recent runLost last 2Informative

CountryWon 73% in USA (37)Favours Refaat M.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 588

Hard ELO1 572

Last 103–7

Age21

ELO1 589

Hard ELO1 588

Last 107–3

Age22

Olivia Lincer faces Merna Refaat in the W50 Austin qualifying round of 16 on hard. Merna Refaat brings the better recent hard form (6 of 9).

Key context

Last match: Olivia Lincer dropped just 5 games past Rasheeda Mcadoo.
Surface form: Olivia Lincer 3 of 9, Merna Refaat 6 of 9 on hard recently — Merna Refaat the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Olivia Lincer carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Lincer O.Refaat M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–77–3

Season win rate38% (3–5)67% (4–2)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15881589

Hard-court ELO15721588

Serve vs returnLast 8 vs 6 matches

1st-serve points won62%60%

Return points won44%48%

Aces / match1.10.3

ClutchLast 8 vs 6 matches

Break points saved48%61%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

09:15 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast13°C · Overcast

Wind3 km/h

Humidity64%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Olivia Lincer vs Merna Refaat — W50 Austin Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/lincer-vs-refaat-w50-austin-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).