UMPIRY
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Francesco Passaro vs Gastao Elias — Lisbon Round of 32

LisbonR32ClayMon 19 Oct · 10:00
Francesco PassaroATP #229 · ITA81%
VSStrong favourite · Passaro F.
Gastao EliasPOR19%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Passaro F.
81%19%

Clear edge for Passaro F. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Passaro F.7.6/10
Dominant favourite
Elias G.4.3/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+153 Clay Elo edgeSupports Passaro F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1592Supports Passaro F.
Recent run9-match win streakSupports Passaro F.
Long matches4 three-setters in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 853
Clay ELO1 748
Last 109–1
Age25
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
ELO1 718
Clay ELO1 625
Last 103–7
Age35
Height180 cm
PlaysRight

Francesco Passaro faces Gastao Elias in the Lisbon round of 32 on clay. Francesco Passaro holds the paper edge — a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Francesco Passaro carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Win streak: Francesco Passaro arrives on a 9-match winning run.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Passaro F.Elias G.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate62% (26–16) (ahead)0% (0–4)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1853 (ahead)1718
Clay-court ELO1748 (ahead)1625
Serve vs returnLast 38 vs 3 matches
1st-serve points won72% (ahead)62%
Return points won37% (ahead)29%
Aces / match4.3 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 38 vs 3 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)48%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast17°C · Clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity47%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Francesco Passaro vs Gastao Elias — Lisbon Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/elias-vs-passaro-lisbon-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).