Lexington Reed vs Mayu Crossley | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

W50 AustinQ16QualifyingHardMon 19 Oct · 09:15

Lexington ReedWTA #860 · USA17%

VSStrong favourite · Crossley M.

Mayu CrossleyWTA #716 · JPN83%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Crossley M.

17%83%

Clear edge for Crossley M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Reed L.4.8/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Crossley M.5.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

CountryWon 71% in USA (102)Supports Crossley M.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 513

Hard ELO1 528

Last 105–5

Age20

EarningsCareer $18K2026 $3K

ELO1 646

Hard ELO1 591

Last 106–4

Age20

EarningsCareer $31K2026 $6K

Lexington Reed faces Mayu Crossley in the W50 Austin qualifying round of 16 on hard. Mayu Crossley holds the paper edge — ranked #716. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Lexington Reed dropped the opening set before beating Carmen Andreea Herea 2–6 6–4 6–2.
Last match: Mayu Crossley dropped just 5 games past Yekaterina Dmitrichenko.
Fatigue load: Lexington Reed carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Reed L.Crossley M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate58% (7–5)74% (17–6)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15131646

Hard-court ELO15281591

Serve vs returnLast 5 vs 16 matches

1st-serve points won66%59%

Return points won41%52%

Aces / match3.00.8

ClutchLast 5 vs 16 matches

Break points saved55%53%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

09:15 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast13°C · Overcast

Wind3 km/h

Humidity64%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lexington Reed vs Mayu Crossley — W50 Austin Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/crossley-vs-reed-w50-austin-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).