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Federico Coria vs Nicolas Mejia — Cali Round of 32

CaliR32ClayMon 19 Oct · 10:00
Federico CoriaATP #843 · ARG18%
VSStrong favourite · Mejia N.
Nicolas Mejia(2)ATP #119 · COL82%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Mejia N.
18%82%

Clear edge for Mejia N. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Coria F.5.2/10
Clear underdog
Mejia N.5.9/10
Even match
Why
Surface+28 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Coria F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1537Against the prediction · Coria F.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on clayInformative
Surface switchHard → ClayAgainst the prediction · Coria F.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 702
Clay ELO1 670
Last 103–7
Age34
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $3.5M2026 $89K
ELO1 806
Clay ELO1 670
Last 104–6
Age26
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $776K2026 $391K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Coria F. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Coria F.Mejia N.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–74–6 (ahead)
Season win rate33% (6–12)59% (35–24) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17021806 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO16701670
Serve vs returnLast 18 vs 53 matches
1st-serve points won62%70% (ahead)
Return points won37%38% (ahead)
Aces / match1.75.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 18 vs 53 matches
Break points saved60%63% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay · fast
Forecast24°C · Drizzle
Wind3 km/h
Humidity73%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Federico Coria vs Nicolas Mejia — Cali Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/coria-vs-mejia-cali-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).