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Holger Rune vs Raphael Collignon — European Open - Brussels Round of 32

European Open - BrusselsR32HardMon 19 Oct · 10:00
Holger RuneATP #195 · DEN75%
VSClear favourite · Rune H.
Raphael CollignonATP #50 · BEL25%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Rune H.
75%25%

Clear edge for Rune H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Rune H.5.5/10
Slight disadvantage
Collignon R.5.6/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+112 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Collignon R.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1894Against the prediction · Collignon R.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO2 051
Hard ELO1 920
Last 105–5
Age23
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.7M
ELO1 903
Hard ELO1 704
Last 104–6
Age24
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.8M2026 $885K

Holger Rune faces Raphael Collignon in the European Open - Brussels round of 32 on hard. Raphael Collignon is the paper favourite — ranked #50, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage — but Holger Rune arrives in form, winning 1 of their last 4 on hard to Raphael Collignon's 0 of 4.

Key context

  • Surface form: Holger Rune 1 of 4, Raphael Collignon 0 of 4 on hard recently — Holger Rune the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Holger Rune carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Rune H. and Collignon R. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Rune H. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Collignon R. 0–1 (0%).

0–10%Rune H. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–10%Collignon R. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
1–2Sets0–2
16–14Games5–12
0–1Tiebreaks0–0
0–1Deciding sets0–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Rune H.Collignon R.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate0% (0–2)66% (35–18) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2051 (ahead)1903
Hard-court ELO1920 (ahead)1704
Serve vs returnLast 2 vs 49 matches
1st-serve points won72%76% (ahead)
Return points won29%37% (ahead)
Aces / match4.06.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 2 vs 49 matches
Break points saved29%63% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast10°C · Overcast
Wind6 km/h
Humidity91%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Holger Rune vs Raphael Collignon — European Open - Brussels Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/collignon-vs-rune-european-open-brussels-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).