Ella Mcdonald vs Mathilde Ngijol Carre

UMPIRY

W50 AustinQ16QualifyingHardMon 19 Oct · 09:15

Ella McdonaldWTA #353 · GBR80%

VSStrong favourite · McDonald E.

Mathilde Ngijol CarreFRA20%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · McDonald E.

80%20%

Clear edge for McDonald E. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

McDonald E.4.5/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Ngijol-Carre M.4.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Recent runLost last 2Informative

CountryWon 63% in USA (27)Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 619

Hard ELO1 603

Last 108–2

Age21

EarningsCareer $163K2026 $41K

ELO1 504

Hard ELO1 493

Last 104–6

Age18

EarningsCareer $5K2026 $1K

Ella Mcdonald faces Mathilde Ngijol Carre in the W50 Austin qualifying round of 16 on hard. Ella Mcdonald brings the better recent hard form (5 of 6).

Key context

Last match: Mathilde Ngijol Carre dropped the opening set before beating Megan Heuser 3–6 7–6 6–3.
Last match: Ella Mcdonald handed Kate Fakih a second-set bagel in a 6–2 6–0 win.
Surface form: Ella Mcdonald 5 of 6, Mathilde Ngijol Carre 3 of 6 on hard recently — Ella Mcdonald the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

McDonald E.Ngijol-Carre M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–24–6

Season win rate66% (19–10)40% (4–6)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16191504

Hard-court ELO16031493

Serve vs returnLast 22 vs 6 matches

1st-serve points won63%57%

Return points won47%45%

Aces / match2.52.2

ClutchLast 22 vs 6 matches

Break points saved56%44%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

09:15 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast13°C · Overcast

Wind3 km/h

Humidity64%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ella Mcdonald vs Mathilde Ngijol Carre — W50 Austin Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/carre-vs-mcdonald-w50-austin-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).