UMPIRY
EN

Diogo Morais vs Carlo Alberto Caniato — Lisbon Round of 32

LisbonR32ClayMon 19 Oct · 10:00
Diogo MoraisPOR17%
VSStrong favourite · Caniato C.
Carlo Alberto CaniatoATP #318 · ITA83%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Caniato C.
17%83%

Clear edge for Caniato C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Morais D.5.5/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Caniato C.6.3/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form7 of last 10 on clayInformative
Surface switchHard → ClaySupports Caniato C.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 540
Clay ELO1 500
Last 107–3
Age22
ELO1 681
Clay ELO1 646
Last 107–3
Age20

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Morais D.Caniato C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate64% (16–9) (ahead)59% (27–19)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15401681 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO15001646 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 16 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won66%74% (ahead)
Return points won42% (ahead)38%
Aces / match1.34.6 (ahead)
ClutchLast 16 vs 44 matches
Break points saved62%63% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast17°C · Clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity47%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Diogo Morais vs Carlo Alberto Caniato — Lisbon Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/caniato-vs-morais-lisbon-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).