Clervie Ngounoue vs Michaela Bayerlova

UMPIRY

W75 SaguenayQ16QualifyingHardMon 19 Oct · 09:15

Clervie NgounoueWTA #546 · USA75%

VSClear favourite · Ngounoue C.

Michaela BayerlovaWTA #788 · CZE25%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Ngounoue C.

75%25%

Clear edge for Ngounoue C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Ngounoue C.4.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Bayerlova M.3.8/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form3 of last 10 on hardInformative

Recent runLost last 4Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Ngounoue C.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 666

Hard ELO1 610

Last 103–7

Age20

EarningsCareer $630K2026 $78K

ELO1 537

Hard ELO1 484

Last 107–3

Age27

EarningsCareer $151K2026 $21K

Clervie Ngounoue faces Michaela Bayerlova in the W75 Saguenay qualifying round of 16 on hard. Clervie Ngounoue is the paper favourite — ranked #546, leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but Michaela Bayerlova arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on hard to Clervie Ngounoue's 1 of 5.

Key context

Last match: Clervie Ngounoue dropped just 4 games past Luisa Hrda.
Last match: Michaela Bayerlova edged Eve Thibault in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Surface form: Clervie Ngounoue 1 of 5, Michaela Bayerlova 3 of 5 on hard recently — Michaela Bayerlova the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Ngounoue C. leads 1–0

Ngounoue C.October 2024W35 Redding 1Hard6-2 6-1

Evidence

Ngounoue C.Bayerlova M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–77–3

Season win rate44% (8–10)51% (19–18)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16661537

Hard-court ELO16101484

Serve vs returnLast 15 vs 37 matches

1st-serve points won63%57%

Return points won43%48%

Aces / match2.40.7

ClutchLast 15 vs 37 matches

Break points saved52%50%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

09:15 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast5°C · Clear

Wind6 km/h

Humidity76%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Clervie Ngounoue vs Michaela Bayerlova — W75 Saguenay Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/bayerlova-vs-ngounoue-w75-saguenay-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).