UMPIRY
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Facundo Mena vs Valerio Aboian — Cali Round of 32

CaliR32ClayMon 19 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
48%52%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mena F.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Aboian V.6.0/10
Even match
Why
Surface+67 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Mena F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1427Against the prediction · Mena F.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Head-to-headLeads 3–1 on claySupports Aboian V.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Mena F.
ELO1 703
Clay ELO1 682
Last 107–3
Age34
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $744K2026 $42K
ELO1 675
Clay ELO1 658
Last 106–4
Age24
Height183 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $145K2026 $29K

Facundo Mena faces Valerio Aboian in the Cali round of 32 on clay. Facundo Mena is the paper favourite — ranked #197, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Valerio Aboian has won 3 of their 4 previous meetings. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Aboian V. leads 3–1
13

Evidence

Mena F.Aboian V.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate57% (28–21)58% (35–25) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1703 (ahead)1675
Clay-court ELO1682 (ahead)1658
Serve vs returnLast 47 vs 58 matches
1st-serve points won72% (ahead)67%
Return points won38%42% (ahead)
Aces / match5.9 (ahead)4.7
ClutchLast 47 vs 58 matches
Break points saved63% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast24°C · Drizzle
Wind3 km/h
Humidity73%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Mena F.Aboian V.
3Days since last match5 — fresher
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
45Games · 7 days27 — fresher
2Matches · 14 days2
45Games · 14 days44 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Facundo Mena vs Valerio Aboian — Cali Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/aboian-vs-mena-cali-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).