Ariana Geerlings vs Laura Samson | Mallorca Final

UMPIRY

MallorcaFinalGrassSun 18 Oct · 10:00Centre Court · Next on

Ariana GeerlingsWTA #505 · ESP58%

VSSlight edge · Geerlings A.

Laura Samson(2)WTA #128 · CZE42%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Geerlings A.

58%42%

Geerlings A. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Geerlings A.5.1/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Samson L.5.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Recent run4-match win streakInformative

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Geerlings A.

Opponent formOpponent hot: 4 of last 5Supports Geerlings A.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 684

Grass ELO1 511

Last 107–3

Age21

EarningsCareer $75K2026 $11K

ELO1 711

Grass ELO1 494

Last 106–4

Age18

EarningsCareer $384K2026 $195K

Ariana Geerlings faces Laura Samson in the Mallorca final on grass. Laura Samson holds the paper edge — ranked #128.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Ariana Geerlings 58 games in 14 days, Laura Samson 21.
Last match: Ariana Geerlings dropped just 5 games past Francesca Curmi.
Win streak: Both arrive in form — Ariana Geerlings on a 4-match run, Laura Samson on 3.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Geerlings A.Samson L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–36–4

Season win rate82% (18–4)63% (29–17)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16841711

Grass-court ELO15111494

Serve vs returnLast 21 vs 44 matches

1st-serve points won61%65%

Return points won54%47%

Aces / match0.72.7

ClutchLast 21 vs 44 matches

Break points saved59%56%

When it starts

Centre Court · Next on · Starting at 10:00 AM

1This match: Geerlings A. v Samson L.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Centre Court · 10:00 local

SurfaceGrass · fast

Forecast19°C · Partly cloudy

Wind19 km/h

Humidity85%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Geerlings A.Samson L.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days2

58Games · 7 days21

3Matches · 14 days2

58Games · 14 days21

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ariana Geerlings vs Laura Samson — Mallorca Final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/geerlings-vs-samson-mallorca-f?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).