UMPIRY
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M. Mbithi vs Lucas Andrade Da Silva — M15 Quito Semi-final

M15 QuitoSemi-finalClaySat 17 Oct · 11:05
VSSlight edge · Andrade da Silva L.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Andrade da Silva L.
39%61%

Andrade da Silva L. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mbithi M.4.4/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Andrade da Silva L.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on clayInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 584
Clay ELO1 476
Last 107–3
Age28
ELO1 610
Clay ELO1 585
Last 108–2
Age21

M. Mbithi faces Lucas Andrade Da Silva in the M15 Quito semi-final on clay. Lucas Andrade Da Silva brings the better recent clay form (5 of 5).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mbithi M.Andrade da Silva L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–38–2 (ahead)
Season win rate62% (8–5)75% (21–7) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15841610 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO14761585 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 6 vs 25 matches
1st-serve points won76%76%
Return points won37%40% (ahead)
Aces / match5.08.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 6 vs 25 matches
Break points saved73% (ahead)66%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:05 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast20°C · Overcast
Wind10 km/h
Humidity44%

Cite this

Umpiry, "M. Mbithi vs Lucas Andrade Da Silva — M15 Quito Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/mbithi-vs-silva-m15-quito-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).