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Lui Maxted vs Cosme Rolland De Ravel — M25 Austin Semi-final

M25 AustinSemi-finalHardSat 17 Oct · 13:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Maxted L.
70%30%

Clear edge for Maxted L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Maxted L.4.7/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Rolland de Ravel C.4.2/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 3Informative
CountryWon 70% in USA (40)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 643
Hard ELO1 623
Last 107–3
Age22
EarningsCareer $64K2026 $14K
ELO1 556
Hard ELO1 522
Last 106–4
Age22
EarningsCareer $18K2026 $9K

Lui Maxted faces Cosme Rolland De Ravel in the M25 Austin semi-final on hard. Lui Maxted is the paper favourite — ranked #394 — but Cosme Rolland De Ravel arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on hard to Lui Maxted's 4 of 6.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Maxted L.Rolland de Ravel C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate60% (24–16)70% (14–6) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1643 (ahead)1556
Hard-court ELO1623 (ahead)1522
Serve vs returnLast 35 vs 12 matches
1st-serve points won68%70% (ahead)
Return points won41%41%
Aces / match3.33.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 35 vs 12 matches
Break points saved60%69% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast18°C · Clear
Wind13 km/h
Humidity37%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lui Maxted vs Cosme Rolland De Ravel — M25 Austin Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/maxted-vs-ravel-m25-austin-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).