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Connie Ma vs Lea Ma — W35 Redding Semi-final

W35 ReddingSemi-finalHardSun 18 Oct · 15:00
Connie MaUSA30%
VSClear favourite · Ma L.
Lea Ma(2)WTA #285 · USA70%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Ma L.
30%70%

Clear edge for Ma L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ma C.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Ma L.4.3/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
CountryWon 70% in USA (23)Against the prediction · Ma C.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 544
Hard ELO1 533
Last 107–3
Age23
ELO1 637
Hard ELO1 608
Last 107–3
Age25

Connie Ma faces Lea Ma in the W35 Redding semi-final on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Last match: Connie Ma dropped the opening set before beating Maria Sholokhova 4–6 6–3 6–1.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Surface form: Both 7 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ma C.Ma L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate86% (6–1) (ahead)55% (29–24)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15441637 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15331608 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 6 vs 45 matches
1st-serve points won61%67% (ahead)
Return points won58% (ahead)44%
Aces / match0.33.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 6 vs 45 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

15:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium-slow
Forecast31°C · Partly cloudy
Wind5 km/h
Humidity14%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Connie Ma vs Lea Ma — W35 Redding Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/ma-vs-ma-w35-redding-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).