Dana Guzman vs Sloane Stephens | W100 Edmond Quarter-final

UMPIRY

W100 EdmondQuarter-finalHardSat 17 Oct · 10:00

Dana GuzmanWTA #529 · PER9%

VSStrong favourite · Stephens S.

Sloane Stephens(5)WTA #133 · USA91%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Stephens S.

9%91%

Clear edge for Stephens S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 11 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Guzman D.4.3/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Stephens S.4.5/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative

CountryWon 72% in USA (46)Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 621

Hard ELO1 573

Last 109–1

Age23

EarningsCareer $27K2026 $12K

ELO1 861

Hard ELO1 730

Last 106–4

Age33

EarningsCareer $19.4M2026 $411K

Dana Guzman faces Sloane Stephens in the W100 Edmond quarter-final on hard. Sloane Stephens is the paper favourite — ranked #133 — but Dana Guzman arrives in form, winning 9 of their last 10 on hard to Sloane Stephens's 6 of 10.

Key context

Last match: Sloane Stephens dropped just 5 games past Madison Brengle.
Last match: Dana Guzman handed Tatjana Maria a third-set bagel in a 6–4 2–6 6–0 win.
Fatigue load: Dana Guzman carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Guzman D.Stephens S.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss9–16–4

Season win rate77% (20–6)50% (20–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16211861

Hard-court ELO15731730

Serve vs returnLast 18 vs 37 matches

1st-serve points won59%60%

Return points won50%43%

Aces / match0.21.2

ClutchLast 18 vs 37 matches

Break points saved56%55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium-fast

Forecast7°C · Clear

Wind5 km/h

Humidity81%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Dana Guzman vs Sloane Stephens — W100 Edmond Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/guzman-vs-stephens-w100-edmond-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).