UMPIRY
EN

Alastair Gray vs Dominick Mosejczuk — M25 Austin Semi-final

M25 AustinSemi-finalHardSat 17 Oct · 14:30
Alastair Gray(1)ATP #292 · GBR77%
VSClear favourite · Gray A.
Dominick MosejczukUSA23%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Gray A.
77%23%

Clear edge for Gray A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Gray A.3.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Mosejczuk D.4.1/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form3 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 719
Hard ELO1 678
Last 104–6
Age28
EarningsCareer $331K2026 $38K
ELO1 546
Hard ELO1 540
Last 1010–0
Age19
EarningsCareer $5K2026 $3K

Alastair Gray faces Dominick Mosejczuk in the M25 Austin semi-final on hard. Dominick Mosejczuk brings the better recent hard form (10 of 10).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Gray A.Mosejczuk D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–610–0 (ahead)
Season win rate53% (25–22)82% (14–3) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1719 (ahead)1546
Hard-court ELO1678 (ahead)1540
Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 9 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)70%
Return points won38%46% (ahead)
Aces / match6.6 (ahead)5.6
ClutchLast 44 vs 9 matches
Break points saved67%70% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

14:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast19°C · Clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity36%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alastair Gray vs Dominick Mosejczuk — M25 Austin Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/gray-vs-mosejczuk-m25-austin-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).