Magdalena Frech vs Han Shi — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Qualifying Round of 32

Ningbo Open - NingboQ32QualifyingHardSat 17 Oct · 15:30Center Court · Next on
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
53%47%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Frech M.7.3/10
Strong advantage
Shi H.5.0/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+429 Hard Elo edgeSupports Frech M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1725Supports Frech M.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Frech M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 851
Hard ELO1 754
Last 105–5
Age28
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.2M2026 $1.1M
ELO1 731
Hard ELO1 697
Last 107–3
Age21
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $264K2026 $75K

Magdalena Frech faces Han Shi in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo qualifying round of 32 on hard. Magdalena Frech is the paper favourite — ranked #56, a roughly 430-point hard Elo advantage — but Han Shi arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Magdalena Frech's 5 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Frech M. and Shi H. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Frech M. went 0–3 (0%) against them, Shi H. 2–1 (67%). Shi H. came out better against 2 of 3 comparable opponents, Frech M. against 0 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (lower-tier event).

0–30%Frech M. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents2–167%Shi H. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–6Sets4–4
30–42Games38–39
0–2Deciding sets2–0

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Frech M.Shi H.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate45% (22–27)67% (50–25) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1851 (ahead)1731
Hard-court ELO1754 (ahead)1697
Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 71 matches
1st-serve points won65% (ahead)63%
Return points won43%48% (ahead)
Aces / match2.9 (ahead)2.2
ClutchLast 48 vs 71 matches
Break points saved57% (ahead)55%

When it starts

Center Court · Next on · Followed by
  • 1This match: Frech M. v Shi H.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center Court · 15:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast30°C · Mainly clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity53%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Frech M.Shi H.
2Days since last match2
4Matches · 7 days4
75 — fresherGames · 7 days97
5 — fresherMatches · 14 days7
91 — fresherGames · 14 days167
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Magdalena Frech vs Han Shi — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/frech-vs-shi-ningbo-open-ningbo-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).