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Ekaterina Ovcharenko vs J. Sun — W15 Shenzhen Round of 16

W15 ShenzhenR16HardThu 15 Oct · 09:30
Ekaterina Ovcharenko(7)WTA #572 · RUS69%
VSClear favourite · Ovcharenko E.
J. SunCHN31%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Ovcharenko E.
69%31%

Clear edge for Ovcharenko E. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ovcharenko E.5.2/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Sun J.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form3 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 556
Hard ELO1 522
Last 104–6
Age25
ELO1 474
Hard ELO1 476
Last 104–6
Age20

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ovcharenko E.Sun J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate38% (8–13) (ahead)38% (6–10)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1556 (ahead)1474
Hard-court ELO1522 (ahead)1476
Serve vs returnLast 19 vs 6 matches
1st-serve points won65% (ahead)52%
Return points won42%46% (ahead)
Aces / match2.5 (ahead)0.0
ClutchLast 19 vs 6 matches
Break points saved54% (ahead)47%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

09:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast27°C · Partly cloudy
Wind15 km/h
Humidity71%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ekaterina Ovcharenko vs J. Sun — W15 Shenzhen Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/ovcharenko-vs-sun-w15-shenzhen-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).