Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli | Olbia Round of 16

UMPIRY

OlbiaR16HardThu 15 Oct · 17:00CLOTO ARENA · After 3 matches

Maxim MrvaATP #217 · CZE46%

VSToss-up

Francesco Maestrelli(8)ATP #171 · ITA54%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Mrva M.6.2/10

Even match

Maestrelli F.6.1/10

Even match

Why

Surface+47 Hard Elo edgeSupports Maestrelli F.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1538Supports Maestrelli F.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Mrva M.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 696

Hard ELO1 572

Last 106–4

Age19

EarningsCareer $116K2026 $50K

ELO1 709

Hard ELO1 649

Last 105–5

Age23

EarningsCareer $921K2026 $338K

Maxim Mrva faces Francesco Maestrelli in the Olbia round of 16 on hard. Francesco Maestrelli holds the paper edge — ranked #171, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Maxim Mrva 11 games in 14 days, Francesco Maestrelli 46.
Last match: Maxim Mrva advanced when Hynek Barton retired.
Last match: Francesco Maestrelli dropped just 5 games past Mili Poljicak.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mrva M.Maestrelli F.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–45–5

Season win rate57% (33–25)41% (18–26)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16961709

Hard-court ELO15721649

Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 38 matches

1st-serve points won64%71%

Return points won44%36%

Aces / match2.86.6

ClutchLast 56 vs 38 matches

Break points saved52%64%

When it starts

CLOTO ARENA · After 3 matches · Not before 17:00

1Gentzsch T. v Kravchenko G.Starts at 11:00
2Kuzmanov D. v Dzumhur D.Followed by
3Fearnley J. v Kumstat J.Not before 15:00
4This match: Mrva M. v Maestrelli F.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CLOTO ARENA · 17:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium-slow

Forecast25°C · Mainly clear

Wind12 km/h

Humidity56%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Mrva M.Maestrelli F.

1Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days1

11Games · 7 days17

1Matches · 14 days2

11Games · 14 days46

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli — Olbia Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/maestrelli-vs-mrva-olbia-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).