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Yusuke Takahashi vs Jamie Mackenzie — M25 Qian Daohu Round of 16

M25 Qian DaohuR16HardThu 15 Oct · 05:00 UTC
Yusuke TakahashiATP #727 · JPN83%
VSStrong favourite · Takahashi Y.
Jamie MackenzieATP #609 · GER17%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Takahashi Y.
83%17%

Clear edge for Takahashi Y. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Takahashi Y.5.5/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Mackenzie J.4.2/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 5 on hardAgainst the prediction · Mackenzie J.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 616
Hard ELO1 588
Last 104–6
Age28
ELO1 519
Hard ELO1 501
Last 106–4
Age56

Yusuke Takahashi faces Jamie Mackenzie in the M25 Qian Daohu round of 16 on hard. Jamie Mackenzie holds the paper edge — ranked #609.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Takahashi Y.Mackenzie J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–66–4 (ahead)
Season win rate47% (21–24)47% (9–10) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1616 (ahead)1519
Hard-court ELO1588 (ahead)1501
Serve vs returnLast 32 vs 11 matches
1st-serve points won67%74% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)34%
Aces / match3.06.4 (ahead)
ClutchLast 32 vs 11 matches
Break points saved60%60%

Draw

Odds

Cite this

Umpiry, "Yusuke Takahashi vs Jamie Mackenzie — M25 Qian Daohu Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/mackenzie-vs-takahashi-m25-qian-daohu-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).