UMPIRY
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Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Xiran Lan — W15 Shenzhen Round of 16

W15 ShenzhenR16HardThu 15 Oct · 09:30
Daria Khomutsianskaya(1)WTA #275 · BLR94%
VSStrong favourite · Khomutsianskaya D.
Xiran LanCHN6%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Khomutsianskaya D.
94%6%

Clear edge for Khomutsianskaya D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 17 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Khomutsianskaya D.6.2/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Lan X.4.9/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 8 on hardInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 707
Hard ELO1 681
Last 107–3
Age22
ELO1 504
Hard ELO1 504
Last 105–5
Age17

Daria Khomutsianskaya faces Xiran Lan in the W15 Shenzhen round of 16 on hard. Daria Khomutsianskaya brings the better recent hard form (7 of 10).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Khomutsianskaya D.Lan X.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate63% (27–16) (ahead)50% (6–6)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1707 (ahead)1504
Hard-court ELO1681 (ahead)1504
Serve vs returnLast 37 vs 8 matches
1st-serve points won64% (ahead)57%
Return points won47% (ahead)46%
Aces / match2.3 (ahead)1.0
ClutchLast 37 vs 8 matches
Break points saved55% (ahead)43%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

09:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast27°C · Partly cloudy
Wind15 km/h
Humidity71%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Xiran Lan — W15 Shenzhen Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/khomutsianskaya-vs-lan-w15-shenzhen-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).