E. Pleshivtsev vs Ye Hongyu | M25 Qian Daohu Round of 16

UMPIRY

M25 Qian DaohuR16HardThu 15 Oct · 03:00 UTC

E. PleshivtsevATP #864 · RUS62%

VSSlight edge · Pleshivtsev E.

Ye HongyuCHN38%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Pleshivtsev E.

62%38%

Pleshivtsev E. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Pleshivtsev E.4.6/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Hongyu Y.4.3/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

What we know

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 506

Hard ELO1 503

Last 105–5

Age19

ELO1 474

Hard ELO1 469

Last 104–6

Age21

E. Pleshivtsev faces Ye Hongyu in the M25 Qian Daohu round of 16 on hard. Ye Hongyu brings the better recent hard form (4 of 5).

Key context

Last match: E. Pleshivtsev dropped the opening set before beating Evan Zhu 3–6 6–4 6–0.
Surface form: E. Pleshivtsev 2 of 5, Ye Hongyu 4 of 5 on hard recently — Ye Hongyu the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: E. Pleshivtsev carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Pleshivtsev E.Hongyu Y.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–54–6

Season win rate59% (10–7)50% (4–4)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15061474

Hard-court ELO15031469

Serve vs returnLast 10 vs 2 matches

1st-serve points won73%55%

Return points won42%32%

Aces / match4.21.0

ClutchLast 10 vs 2 matches

Break points saved55%43%

Draw

Odds

Cite this

Umpiry, "E. Pleshivtsev vs Ye Hongyu — M25 Qian Daohu Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/hongyu-vs-pleshivtsev-m25-qian-daohu-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).