Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Ryan Fishback

UMPIRY

M15 QuitoR16ClayThu 15 Oct · 10:05

Juan Sebastian Osorio(3)ATP #680 · COL55%

VSToss-up

Ryan FishbackUSA45%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

55%45%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Osorio J.5.7/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Fishback R.5.5/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form4 of last 10 on clayInformative

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headFirst meeting on clayBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 533

Clay ELO1 505

Last 106–4

Age29

EarningsCareer $40K2026 $9K

ELO1 527

Clay ELO1 483

Last 104–6

Age24

EarningsCareer $31K2026 $4K

Juan Sebastian Osorio faces Ryan Fishback in the M15 Quito round of 16 on clay. Ryan Fishback holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Fatigue load: Ryan Fishback carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Head-to-head: Ryan Fishback leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on clay. Last met at M15 Huamantla 4 2025.
Surface form: Both 2 of 5 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Fishback R. leads 1–0

Fishback R.February 2025M15 Huamantla 4Hard6-1 6-3

Evidence

Osorio J.Fishback R.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–44–6

Season win rate56% (15–12)43% (3–4)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15331527

Clay-court ELO15051483

Serve vs returnLast 21 vs 7 matches

1st-serve points won69%66%

Return points won40%41%

Aces / match3.81.6

ClutchLast 21 vs 7 matches

Break points saved56%48%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:05 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast18°C · Partly cloudy

Wind4 km/h

Humidity53%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Ryan Fishback — M15 Quito Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/fishback-vs-osorio-m15-quito-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).