Matthew William Donald vs Jonas Forejtek

UMPIRY

M25 Santa Margherita di PulaQuarter-finalClayThu 15 Oct · 11:30

Matthew William Donald(7)ATP #418 · CZE31%

VSClear favourite · Forejtek J.

Jonas Forejtek(2)ATP #343 · CZE69%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Forejtek J.

31%69%

Clear edge for Forejtek J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Donald M.5.2/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Forejtek J.5.4/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form8 of last 10 on claySupports Forejtek J.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Donald M.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 650

Clay ELO1 590

Last 108–2

Age21

Height175 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $67K2026 $21K

ELO1 727

Clay ELO1 680

Last 108–2

Age25

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $255K2026 $38K

Matthew William Donald faces Jonas Forejtek in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula quarter-final on clay. Jonas Forejtek holds the paper edge — ranked #343. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Matthew William Donald 69 games in 14 days, Jonas Forejtek 139.
Last match: Matthew William Donald advanced when Giovanni Oradini retired.
Last match: Jonas Forejtek dropped just 3 games past Gabriele Crivellaro.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Donald M.Forejtek J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–28–2

Season win rate64% (29–16)58% (32–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16501727

Clay-court ELO15901680

Serve vs returnLast 38 vs 53 matches

1st-serve points won64%68%

Return points won45%41%

Aces / match1.23.4

ClutchLast 38 vs 53 matches

Break points saved55%65%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast23°C · Overcast

Wind3 km/h

Humidity68%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Donald M.Forejtek J.

11Days since last match3

0Matches · 7 days4

0Games · 7 days117

3Matches · 14 days5

69Games · 14 days139

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matthew William Donald vs Jonas Forejtek — M25 Santa Margherita di Pula Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/donald-vs-forejtek-m25-santa-margherita-di-pula-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).