Yaroslav Demin vs Matthew Dellavedova

UMPIRY

M25 Qian DaohuR16HardThu 15 Oct · 03:00 UTC

Yaroslav DeminATP #653 · RUS20%

VSStrong favourite · Dellavedova M.

Matthew Dellavedova(2)ATP #283 · AUS80%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Dellavedova M.

20%80%

Clear edge for Dellavedova M. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Demin Y.4.2/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Dellavedova M.5.7/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form4 of last 10 on hardSupports Dellavedova M.

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Dellavedova M.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 555

Hard ELO1 533

Last 106–4

Age21

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $48K2026 $10K

ELO1 696

Hard ELO1 670

Last 107–3

Age26

Height191 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $179K2026 $35K

Yaroslav Demin faces Matthew Dellavedova in the M25 Qian Daohu round of 16 on hard. Matthew Dellavedova holds the paper edge — ranked #283, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Key context

Freshness: Yaroslav Demin comes in with 7 days of rest and 38 games in 14d, vs Matthew Dellavedova's 15 and 0.
Surface form: Yaroslav Demin 2 of 4, Matthew Dellavedova 4 of 4 on hard recently — Matthew Dellavedova the sharper of late.
Head-to-head: Matthew Dellavedova leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M15 Pontevedra 1 2024.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Dellavedova M. leads 1–0

Dellavedova M.October 2024M15 Pontevedra 1Hard6-3 1-6 6-1

Evidence

Demin Y.Dellavedova M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–47–3

Season win rate50% (8–8)70% (46–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15551696

Hard-court ELO15331670

Serve vs returnLast 14 vs 37 matches

1st-serve points won69%65%

Return points won41%39%

Aces / match3.52.8

ClutchLast 14 vs 37 matches

Break points saved60%58%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Demin Y.Dellavedova M.

7Days since last match15

1Matches · 7 days0

18Games · 7 days0

2Matches · 14 days0

38Games · 14 days0

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Yaroslav Demin vs Matthew Dellavedova — M25 Qian Daohu Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/dellavedova-vs-demin-m25-qian-daohu-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).