UMPIRY
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Lukas Pokorny vs Aleksander Chayka — M15 Szabolcsveresmart Round of 16

M15 SzabolcsveresmartR16HardThu 15 Oct · 10:00
Lukas Pokorny(1)ATP #565 · SVK82%
VSStrong favourite · Pokorny L.
Aleksander ChaykaRUS18%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Pokorny L.
82%18%

Clear edge for Pokorny L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Pokorny L.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Chayka A.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on hardInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 663
Hard ELO1 633
Last 107–3
Age24
ELO1 536
Hard ELO1 529
Last 105–5
Age22

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Pokorny L.Chayka A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate58% (18–13) (ahead)20% (1–4)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1663 (ahead)1536
Hard-court ELO1633 (ahead)1529
Serve vs returnLast 24 vs 5 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)69%
Return points won39% (ahead)36%
Aces / match6.3 (ahead)3.8
ClutchLast 24 vs 5 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)50%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast12°C · Clear
Wind11 km/h
Humidity69%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lukas Pokorny vs Aleksander Chayka — M15 Szabolcsveresmart Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/chayka-vs-pokorny-m15-szabolcsveresmart-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).