Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin vs Rafael Tosetto — M15 Maringa Round of 16

M15 MaringaR16ClayThu 15 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Tosetto R.
41%59%

Tosetto R. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Goncalves Ceolin J.4.1/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Tosetto R.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on claySupports Tosetto R.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Head-to-headLeads 2–1 on claySupports Tosetto R.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 524
Clay ELO1 529
Last 105–5
Age27
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $21K2026 $6K
ELO1 549
Clay ELO1 534
Last 107–3
Age27
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $33K2026 $9K

Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin faces Rafael Tosetto in the M15 Maringa round of 16 on clay. Rafael Tosetto holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–1.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

3 meetings · Tosetto R. leads 2–1
12

Evidence

Goncalves Ceolin J.Tosetto R.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate47% (7–8)57% (17–13) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15241549 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO15291534 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 14 vs 27 matches
1st-serve points won69% (ahead)65%
Return points won40%40%
Aces / match4.8 (ahead)2.9
ClutchLast 14 vs 27 matches
Break points saved52%53% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast21°C · Overcast
Wind10 km/h
Humidity87%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Goncalves Ceolin J.Tosetto R.
18Days since last match18
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
0Matches · 14 days0
0Games · 14 days0

Cite this

Umpiry, "Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin vs Rafael Tosetto — M15 Maringa Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/ceolin-vs-tosetto-m15-maringa-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).