Tristan Boyer vs Vilius Gaubas | Maia Round of 16

UMPIRY

MaiaR16ClayThu 15 Oct · 11:00

Tristan BoyerATP #209 · USA39%

VSSlight edge · Gaubas V.

Vilius Gaubas(6)ATP #141 · LTU61%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Gaubas V.

39%61%

Gaubas V. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Boyer T.5.9/10

Even match

Gaubas V.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+10 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Boyer T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1581Supports Gaubas V.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on claySupports Gaubas V.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Boyer T.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 781

Clay ELO1 632

Last 104–6

Age25

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $233K

ELO1 830

Clay ELO1 713

Last 106–4

Age21

Height178 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $897K2026 $413K

Tristan Boyer faces Vilius Gaubas in the Maia round of 16 on clay. Vilius Gaubas holds the paper edge — ranked #141, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Tristan Boyer 48 games in 14 days, Vilius Gaubas 117.
Last match: Tristan Boyer dropped just 6 games past Alejandro Moro Canas.
Head-to-head: Vilius Gaubas leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Roland Garros 2025.

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Boyer T. and Gaubas V. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Boyer T. went 3–0 (100%) against them, Gaubas V. 2–1 (67%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 0 better-results split).

3–0100%Boyer T. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents2–167%Gaubas V. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

7–2Sets4–2

56–37Games29–29

1–2Tiebreaks0–0

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Llamas Ruiz P.#144W7-5 6-7 7-6 6-3Wimbledon · grassL3-6 1-6Roland Garros · clay
vs Pellegrino A.#145W6-2 6-1Wimbledon · grassW6-4 7-5Rio de Janeiro · clay
vs Passaro F.#229W6-7(4) 6-4 6-2Australian Open · hardW6-4 6-4Rio de Janeiro · clay

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Gaubas V. leads 1–0

Gaubas V.May 2025Roland GarrosClay7-5 6-3

Evidence

Boyer T.Gaubas V.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–66–4

Season win rate56% (27–21)56% (34–27)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17811830

Clay-court ELO16321713

Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 52 matches

1st-serve points won68%66%

Return points won40%38%

Aces / match3.83.3

ClutchLast 45 vs 52 matches

Break points saved59%63%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceClay · slow

Forecast18°C · Partly cloudy

Wind3 km/h

Humidity90%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Boyer T.Gaubas V.

1Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days4

18Games · 7 days98

2Matches · 14 days5

48Games · 14 days117

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tristan Boyer vs Vilius Gaubas — Maia Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/boyer-vs-gaubas-maia-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).