Alexander Weis vs Lorenzo Berto | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

M25 Santa Margherita di PulaQuarter-finalClayThu 15 Oct · 11:30

Alexander WeisATP #624 · ITA80%

VSStrong favourite · Weis A.

Lorenzo BertoITA20%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Weis A.

80%20%

Clear edge for Weis A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Weis A.4.2/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Berto L.4.1/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form2 of last 5 on clayAgainst the prediction · Berto L.

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 702

Clay ELO1 672

Last 108–2

Age29

ELO1 517

Clay ELO1 516

Last 106–4

Age19

Alexander Weis faces Lorenzo Berto in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula quarter-final on clay. Alexander Weis brings the better recent clay form (8 of 10).

Key context

Last match: Lorenzo Berto advanced when Andrey Chepelev retired.
Fatigue load: Alexander Weis carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Alexander Weis 8 of 10, Lorenzo Berto 6 of 10 on clay recently — Alexander Weis the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Weis A.Berto L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–26–4

Season win rate73% (29–11)48% (11–12)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17021517

Clay-court ELO16721516

Serve vs returnLast 30 vs 19 matches

1st-serve points won67%67%

Return points won43%40%

Aces / match1.83.9

ClutchLast 30 vs 19 matches

Break points saved57%57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast23°C · Overcast

Wind3 km/h

Humidity68%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alexander Weis vs Lorenzo Berto — M25 Santa Margherita di Pula Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/berto-vs-weis-m25-santa-margherita-di-pula-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).