Zuzanna Bednarz vs Arina Gamretkaia | W15 Chisinau Round of 16

UMPIRY

W15 ChisinauR16ClayThu 15 Oct · 12:30

Zuzanna Bednarz(4)WTA #734 · POL70%

VSClear favourite · Bednarz Z.

Arina GamretkaiaMDA30%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Bednarz Z.

70%30%

Clear edge for Bednarz Z. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Bednarz Z.4.5/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Gamretkaia A.5.0/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

What we know

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 545

Clay ELO1 528

Last 107–3

Age21

ELO1 488

Clay ELO1 497

Last 104–6

Age23

Zuzanna Bednarz faces Arina Gamretkaia in the W15 Chisinau round of 16 on clay. Zuzanna Bednarz brings the better recent clay form (6 of 8).

Key context

Last match: Zuzanna Bednarz dropped just 5 games past Melissa Boyden.
Last match: Arina Gamretkaia dropped just 4 games past Iana Semichina.
Surface form: Zuzanna Bednarz 6 of 8, Arina Gamretkaia 4 of 8 on clay recently — Zuzanna Bednarz the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Bednarz Z.Gamretkaia A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–34–6

Season win rate57% (16–12)50% (2–2)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15451488

Clay-court ELO15281497

Serve vs returnLast 26 vs 1 matches

1st-serve points won64%52%

Return points won51%42%

Aces / match2.30.0

ClutchLast 26 vs 1 matches

Break points saved50%40%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

12:30 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast12°C · Overcast

Wind14 km/h

Humidity68%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Zuzanna Bednarz vs Arina Gamretkaia — W15 Chisinau Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/bednarz-vs-gamretkaia-w15-chisinau-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).