UMPIRY
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Florent Bax vs Ruslan Serazhetdinov — M25 Luanda Round of 16

M25 LuandaR16HardThu 15 Oct · 11:30
Florent Bax(1)ATP #302 · FRA93%
VSStrong favourite · Bax F.
Ruslan SerazhetdinovRUS7%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Bax F.
93%7%

Clear edge for Bax F. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 14 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Bax F.4.6/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Serazhetdinov R.6.0/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 688
Hard ELO1 628
Last 107–3
Age27
ELO1 450
Hard ELO1 460
Last 104–6
Age21

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Bax F.Serazhetdinov R.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate59% (34–24) (ahead)44% (4–5)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1688 (ahead)1450
Hard-court ELO1628 (ahead)1460
Serve vs returnLast 51 vs 8 matches
1st-serve points won76% (ahead)66%
Return points won37%37%
Aces / match6.7 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 51 vs 8 matches
Break points saved65% (ahead)51%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast28°C · Overcast
Wind9 km/h
Humidity68%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Florent Bax vs Ruslan Serazhetdinov — M25 Luanda Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/bax-vs-serazhetdinov-m25-luanda-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).